Ever wondered why people are so bad at predicting events? Did you ever realized that the world change according to some big, unpredictable events like the 9/11 and Internet, instead of the gradual building of change that we are led to believe?
I start to read Nassim Taleb's Book "Black Swan" just one week ago and has been the most insightful book I have ever read. The Black Swan theory tries to explain how these big and unpredictable events came to occur and how human nature and behavior blocks the way to perceive such possibilities.
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| Image taken from www.oxonianreview.org |
Taken directly from Wikipedia, the Black Swan theory tries to explain:
- The disproportionate role of high-profile, hard-to-predict, and rare events that are beyond the realm of normal expectations in history, science, finance, and technology
- The non-computability of the probability of the consequential rare events using scientific methods (owing to the very nature of small probabilities)
- The psychological biases that make people individually and collectively blind to uncertainty and unaware of the massive role of the rare event in historical affairs
Nassim Taleb, born in 1960 in Lebanon, is an essayist, scholar and statistician. The "Black Swan" is a extraordinary book, written somehow in a funny way, full of daily life examples and reveling amazing aspects of the human nature and how we perceive the complex world around us. Sunday Times described this book as one of the twelve most influential books since World War II.
I strongly recommend you to read and re-read this book, its a lot of fun. I already learn so much by reading it and i'm not even half of the book!!
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| Nassim Taleb, photo taken from dailybail.com |
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